Deaths to outpace births in every corner of the country by 2043
A report by a population research institute found that young people flock to metropolitan areas where raising children is difficult, perpetuating the spiral.
Older adults queue to receive a free meal near a park in central Seoul on July 28.YONHAP
Not a single city or province in Korea is expected to record more births than deaths by2043, the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future said on Wednesday.
The country is expected to have its first municipality, outside the islands, with fewer than 10,000 residents in 2044.
The forecasts illustrate the mounting toll of regional depopulation as low birthrates and rapid aging reshape the country, according to an annual report in which 14 population experts analyzed state-compiled population projections for 2022 to 2052 and other demographic data.
Korea’s total fertility rate climbed for the second consecutive year to 0.8 last year, but the report warns that the rebound masks persistent regional disparities.
By 2043, deaths are projected to exceed births in all 17 municipalities and provinces, according to the report.
The figures do not account for the administrative integration of South Jeolla and Gwangju.
Sixteen regions were already recording natural population declines as of 2022. Sejong, the only region still registering natural population growth, is projected to follow suit in 2043.
Only five regions — Jeju, North Chungcheong, Incheon, Gyeonggi and Sejong — have yet to reach their population peaksas population inflows outweigh natural decreases. Everywhere else, the peak has already passed. For those regions, population decline is no longer a future risk to prepare for but a present reality to manage.
Older adults rest in a park in central Seoul on July 28.NEWS1
Overall, the regions where population decline was slowest were not those with the highest fertility rates, but those that attracted people and jobs.
“Where young people move matters more than the fertility rate in determining how much time a region has left,” the institute said. “Regional population policy must address a fundamental paradox: Young people flock to metropolitan areas where having children is difficult, while places conducive to raising children lack young people.”
At the same time, regional cities that once acted as bulwarks against population decline are eroding faster. For years, people born in smaller communities moved first to major regional cities as adults and then to the greater Seoul area.
Busan, whose population is projected to fall to about 3.09 million by 2031, is expected to surrender its status as Korea’s second-largest city to Incheon. For many other municipalities, the stakes go beyond their rank: Their very survival is coming into question.
Yeongyang County in North Gyeongsang, which had a population of 15,972 as of July, is expected to become the first nonisland municipality in Korea to dip below 10,000 residents in 2044.
Nurses take care of newborns at a hospital in Gyeonggi on June 24.NEWS1
The demographic imbalance is projected to deepen further.
By 2041, Gunwi County in Daegu Metropolitan City is expected to have 50 older residents for every child. By 2047, older adults living alone are projected to account for one in four households in Gangwon. By 2049, eight in 10 residents of Hadong County, South Gyeongsang, are projected to be older. Three years later, North Gyeongsang is expected to see six deaths for every birth.
The Seoul metropolitan area sits at the end of a demographic pipeline that is breaking down. It occupies only 11.8 percent of the country’s land, yet its share of Korea’s population rose from 46.3 percent in 2000 to 50.2 percent in 2020 and is projected to reach 53.4 percent by 2052.
Even then, the region is expected to lose 1.38 million residents over the same period. Its share rises not because the capital region is growing, but because populations in the rest of the country are shrinking far faster.
The institute proposed a broader overhaul of regional population policy: tailoring strategies to local realities, shifting the focus from attracting young people to helping them settle and promoting the long-term settlement and social integration of foreign residents rather than relying on them as a short-term supply of labor.
“Even a miraculous rebound in the fertility rate would not change the fact that the population of people who can have children has already shrunk,” said Yi In-sil, the head of the institute. “Now that the Framework Act on Population Strategy [translated] has taken effect, we need to build a new policy framework around the distinct circumstances of each region.”
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
