Allegedly NIS-linked Moscow trip raises eyebrows over Seoul’s Russia outreach, friction with Washington 

A close associate of the current National Intelligence Service (NIS) director who heads an NIS-affiliated organization visited Moscow in the first half of this year for work, according to multiple intelligence sources on Monday, prompting concerns that Seoul’s outreach to Moscow as an indirect channel to Pyongyang could deepen friction with Washington.

The official, who held a senior NIS post under the Moon Jae-in administration, now heads the NIS- affiliated Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS) in a civilian capacity. Senior officials from the organization and a Russia expert who previously served on the Presidential Committee on Northern Economic Cooperation joined the trip, according to another source.

“I understand there were considerable difficulties preparing for the trip, including exchanging cash, because of sanctions against Russia,” one source said. “But I was told the visit was completed without major problems thanks to cooperation from the Russian side.”

The Unification Ministry and the INSS said in a joint statement on Tuesday that the trip was unrelated to the NIS and part of a regular academic exchange program.

"In addition to our institute, numerous government-funded research institutes in South Korea maintain exchanges with Russian think tanks," the statement said. "During the visit to Russia, our institute primarily conveyed concerns over the potential transfer of military technology amid deepening ties between North Korea and Russia."

Some analysts have questioned the purpose of the trip, given that it was made by the head of an NIS-affiliated organization, even if it was characterized as an academic or civilian exchange.

"They may present the trip as an academic or civilian exchange, but approaching Russia without a clear justification while the war in Ukraine continues could arouse suspicions in Washington and draw criticism both at home and abroad," said a researcher at a government-funded research institute who requested anonymity.

It remains unclear whether the U.S. government actually raised concerns about the trip or other visits to Russia by people connected to the South Korean government.

Seoul’s outreach comes as it searches for a way to restart dialogue with North Korea.

President Lee Jae Myung said at a press conference on Dec. 24 last year that Seoul must “continue to demonstrate goodwill and make efforts to create even the smallest opening” for dialogue with North Korea. Speculation then grew that officials associated with the government’s so-called autonomy faction, including NIS Director Lee Jong-seok and Unification Minister Chung Dong-young, were working to establish communication channels with Pyongyang.

The autonomy faction refers to officials who stress Korea’s independence in foreign and North Korea policy, while other officials may prioritize close coordination with the United States.

Direct dialogue with the North, however, has effectively ground to a halt as leader Kim Jong-un has blocked contact with Seoul under his policy of treating the two Koreas as "two hostile states."

Against this backdrop, attention within and around the South Korean government has shifted toward indirect contacts through China and Russia — North Korea's traditional allies.

Russia's growing influence over Pyongyang, following the deployment of North Korean troops to support Moscow's war in Ukraine, has also raised the possibility of using that relationship to facilitate dialogue.

Talk has circulated among diplomats since early this year that NIS Director Lee visited a third country to establish contact with Russian officials, but the NIS has dismissed them as “completely untrue.”

There have also been public efforts to engage Russia.

Unification Minister Chung had addressed his intention to attend the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in July, which was scheduled for September in Vladivostok, Russia.

"I don't know at what level, but we need to participate," Chung said at a press conference marking his first anniversary in office on July 23.

During a preliminary briefing ahead of a presidential policy report in August, Chung also said the ministry was "actively pursuing participation in the EEF."

Seoul ultimately sent its ambassador to Russia to the forum, while the Unification Ministry said it would not attend, citing the war in Ukraine. But the remarks were interpreted as part of an effort to restore relations between Seoul and Moscow and use that rapprochement to seek a breakthrough in inter-Korean relations.

More recently, members of the Public Engagement for a Peaceful Korean Peninsula Bureau, established last year under the direct authority of the unification minister, reportedly visited Moscow for a policy briefing organized by the Russia chapter of a Unification Ministry advisory committee.

The delegation included former Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul, who previously served as a policy adviser to Chung.

Some NIS officials working on the ground doubt the agency’s approach to North Korea, according to an intelligence source.

While the leadership is reportedly working to establish contact with Pyongyang and produce tangible results, these officials worry the effort could prove futile given the increasingly close ties among North Korea, China and Russia and Pyongyang’s continued adherence to its “two hostile states” policy.

"Some employees who are dissatisfied with the leadership's approach to North Korea have been voicing their concerns about sensitive issues to former colleagues, and those accounts are subsequently making their way to politicians," an intelligence source who requested anonymity said.

Differences of opinion have also surfaced over the NIS's assessments of North Korea, including its leadership succession.

In a briefing to the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee on Sept. 1, the NIS assessed that Kim Jong-un's daughter, Kim Ju-ae, had effectively entered the stage of being designated as his successor.

"The assessment could be interpreted as an indirect message that the government intends to respect North Korea's succession arrangements in line with the spirit of the Inter-Korean basic agreement, which calls for mutual respect for each other's systems and noninterference in internal affairs," said a researcher at a government-funded research institute who requested anonymity.

"At the same time, some within the NIS have responded with a degree of cynicism, describing the decision to effectively identify Kim Ju-ae as the successor before North Korea has even completed its own succession designation process as an assessment based on confirmation bias," the researcher added.

Update, Oct. 13: Joint statement by the INSS and Unification Ministry added.

BY CHUNG YEONG-GYO [[email protected]]