Visitors look at a model of the Earth that illustrates the El Niño phenomenon at the “Earth ON” interactive exhibit at the National Daegu Meteorological Science Museum in Daegu on Aug. 6.YONHAP
The Pacific is heating up, and Korea may soon feel the consequences. An El Niño developing in the ocean could become the strongest ever recorded. Experts warn that the phenomenon could fuel more powerful typhoons and have significant consequences for Korea.
“El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27,” the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center said in its outlook on Monday.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rise above normal levels. A stronger El Niño can push global temperatures higher and trigger extreme weather around the world.
Signs of a strengthening El Niño are already emerging across the Pacific. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific reached 29.5 degrees Celsius (85.1 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday, or 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1990-2010 average.
The key question is whether the current El Niño will surpass prior super El Niño events in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, which were among the strongest on record.
The three-month average Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which measures the strength of El Niño relative to broader tropical ocean temperatures, stood at plus-1 degree Celsius for the May-to-July period. The index peaked between plus-2.3 and plus-2.4 degrees Celsius during the three previous super El Niño events.
Annual changes in sea surface temperatures in the El Niño monitoring region since 1950. This year’s temperatures, in red, have steadily climbed to approach 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) in August, well above the historical average shown by gray dotted lines.CLIMATE REANALYZER
NOAA forecasts a 69 percent chance that the RONI will exceed plus-2.5 degrees Celsius during the October-December peak. That would make the current El Niño the strongest since records began in 1950.
The UK Met Office, Britain's national weather service, has also warned of exceptionally high temperatures in parts of the Pacific. It said temperatures in some El Niño monitoring regions could rise nearly 5 degrees Celsius above normal, an unprecedented level, while global average temperatures next year could exceed preindustrial levels by more than 2 degrees Celsius.
El Niño affects each region differently, but exceptionally powerful typhoons could pose some of their greatest risks to Korea.
British weather forecasting company Tropical Storm Risk expects the strong El Niño to accelerate the formation and development of typhoons this year. It forecasts 13 powerful typhoons between June and November, more than three above the average of 9.3.
Sea surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, an El Niño monitoring region. Darker shades of red indicate temperatures farther above normal.COPERNICUS CLIMATE CHANGE SERVICE
Typhoon Saudel, the 18th typhoon of the season, formed on Wednesday and is expected to strengthen into a Category 4 storm as it crosses unusually warm tropical waters. Its projected path remains highly uncertain, but forecasters have not ruled out the possibility that it could pass Japan and move north toward the Korean Peninsula.
“El Niño has weakened high-pressure activity over the central northwestern Pacific, so typhoons are forming more frequently across the region,” said Kang Nam-young, a professor in the Department of Geography at Kyungpook National University. “Once a path opens up, a typhoon could reach Korea at any time, so we need to be prepared.”
A satellite image of Typhoon Saudel, the 18th typhoon of the season, and its projected pathKOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION
The threat from El Niño could extend far beyond extreme weather.
Korea's relatively low food self-sufficiency rate leaves the country vulnerable to disruptions in global food markets. Goldman Sachs estimates that a super El Niño could drive global food prices up by about 15.8 percent this year.
“A strong El Niño could have a major impact on international grain markets through extreme weather in key grain-producing regions,” said Oh Jae-ho, CEO of Nano Weather and professor emeritus at Pukyong National University. “In the short term, Korea needs to expand strategic reserves of key grains. Over the medium-to-long term, the country needs to establish a national climate and food early-warning system.”
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
