57 or 120? Why estimates of North Korea's nuclear arsenal differ.
Trump cited 57 North Korean nuclear weapons, while Seoul’s defense minister referenced 80 to 120, reflecting different methods of counting warheads and fissile material.
Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back answers lawmakers' questions during a plenary meeting of the National Assembly's National Defense Committee in Seoul on Aug. 20.NEWS1
U.S. President Donald Trump claims that North Korea possesses 57 nuclear weapons, but South Korea's defense minister says it's between 80 and 120. Why the sharp contrast? Because assessing Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal can vary depending on whether one is simply counting completed warheads or including the additional weapons that could be produced from its stockpile of fissile material, according to experts.
Trump on Wednesday stated that North Korea has 57 “very powerful” nuclear weapons, while being asked by reporters about the possibility of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un again. Trump's response was, “Yeah, I will be."
South Korea's Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back, however, reported a vastly larger number to the National Assembly's National Defense Committee on Thursday.
"We generally estimate the number at between 80 and 120, but there are limitations to giving an exact figure,” Ahn said. He later clarified that the figure was not an official assessment by the military but an assessment by a domestic research institute.
Experts believe the discrepancy likely stems from differences in how nuclear capabilities are assessed. Trump's figure may have focused on completed nuclear warheads currently in North Korea's possession, while the South Korean research institute's estimate may have included the number of weapons that could potentially be produced using the weapons-grade nuclear material Pyongyang has accumulated.
Trump's figure of 57 is close to an estimate published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) in its Sipri Yearbook 2026, released in June.
Sipri estimated that North Korea possessed about 60 nuclear warheads as of January and had enough fissile material to produce at least 30 more. Some have also speculated that Trump's figure of 57 may have been based on information he received from U.S. intelligence agencies.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with technology leaders in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington on Aug. 19.AP/YONHAP
The figure cited by Ahn is somewhat lower than but in the same range as an estimate by the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) in South Korea.
"North Korea is estimated to have the capacity for an arsenal of around 130 nuclear weapons, including about 115 uranium-based weapons and 15 plutonium-based weapons," Park Yong-han, head of the Nuclear Security Research Division at KIDA, said in a phone interview with the JoongAng Ilbo.
The estimate was calculated by applying the critical mass of nuclear material needed to produce one nuclear warhead — 25 kilograms (55 pounds) of highly enriched uranium and 4 to 7.4 kilograms of plutonium — to the estimated amounts of highly enriched uranium and plutonium accumulated by North Korea, according to Park.
"Such estimates serve as an indicator of the trend in North Korea's expanding nuclear capabilities," Park said. "It should also be taken into account that this is a theoretical maximum based on the assumption that all nuclear material is used without any losses."
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
