A screen grab taken from a video released by the Houthis military media center on July 9, 2025, shows the Liberian-flagged bulker, Eternity C, sinking after being attacked in the Red Sea off the port city of Hodeidah, Yemen, on July 7, 2025.EPA/YONHAP
Korea is scrambling to beef up its crude oil reserves as two critical maritime arteries, the Red Sea and the Black Sea, are both being destabilized by the fallout from wars involving Iran and Ukraine.
Korea has enough crude oil lined up to get through September even if the Red Sea closes, the government said Tuesday, after Yemen's Houthi rebels declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and reopened questions about shipping routes through the Middle East.
Crude arriving in July and August has been secured at more than 110 percent of last year's monthly average, and September volumes stand at more than 90 percent of last year's level, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources said.
"Supply is confirmed to be sound through September," said Yang Ki-wook, who directs the ministry's industrial resources security office. "Even if the Red Sea is blocked, we do not expect particular problems."
The ministry said Red Sea traffic is running normally so far and that it is watching closely.
"Ships are still moving through the Red Sea as normal, and we are monitoring it continuously," Yang said. "If a blockade becomes real, things could get difficult, but this is not the stage for acting on hypotheticals. If it becomes necessary, we will arrange alternatives such as the Suez Canal."
The Houthis have repeatedly targeted merchant ships in the Red Sea since 2023, severely disrupting global shipping.
The latest blockade declaration is widely seen as an extension of the conflict between the United States and Iran. Although Saudi Arabia has officially maintained neutrality, it remains one of Washington's closest allies in the Middle East.
Tensions escalated sharply after Saudi forces on July 13 struck the runway at Yemen's Sanaa International Airport, thereby preventing a Houthi delegation returning from Iran after attending the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from landing.
In retaliation, the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's Abha International Airport before declaring a naval blockade against the kingdom. The Houthis also warned that countries supporting U.S. military operations against Iran would pay the price.
Houthi supporters hold up their weapons during a protest against Saudi Arabia in Sana'a, Yemen, on July 17.EPA/YONHAP
Disruption in energy supply
Analysts say the blockade is intended not only to pressure Saudi Arabia but also to disrupt Middle Eastern energy supply chains.
NAM JUNG-HYUN
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is the only maritime gateway linking the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. Roughly 12 to 15 percent of global seaborne trade and about 30 percent of the world's container traffic passes through the Red Sea, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development estimates.
If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is effectively blocked after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East's two main oil shipping routes would both be cut off.
Saudi Arabia would be particularly vulnerable because it has relied on the Red Sea port of Yanbu as an alternative export route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia has shipped an average of more than 4.5 million barrels a day of crude oil and refined petroleum products from Yanbu since April, with about 70 percent destined for Asia, according to trade intelligence firm Kpler.
“The Houthis, who are Iranian allies, could theoretically shut off the Bab el-Mandeb and basically make it so that Saudi Arabia doesn’t have any way to export oil,” CFR expert Edward Fishman said.
Alternative shipping routes do remain available. During the Houthi attacks in 2023, major shipping companies including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd rerouted vessels around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope instead of using the Suez Canal.
However, the detour significantly increases transit times and shipping costs.
Reuters reported that if the blockade materializes, more than 3 million barrels a day of Saudi crude currently bound for Asia through the Red Sea would have to be rerouted around southern Africa, potentially delaying deliveries from Yanbu to Asian refiners by about one month.
War-risk insurance premiums for vessels sailing through the Red Sea also jumped immediately after the Houthi announcement, from about 0.3 percent of a ship's value to 0.75 percent. This adds hundreds of thousands of dollars to the cost of a single voyage for a standard commercial vessel.
Smoke rises from the grain carrier Golden Leo under the Guinea-Bissau flag after a Russian missile strike in the Black Sea close to Odesa, Ukraine, on July 19.AP/YONHAP
Black Sea grain route under pressure
Conditions in the Black Sea, the world's main grain export corridor, are also deteriorating.
Russia and Ukraine have recently intensified attacks on each other's vessels and port facilities in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
Following the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2023, both sides continued launching maritime drone and missile attacks. Large-scale naval clashes had eased in recent months as both militaries focused on fighting along the land front.
That changed this month as Russia stepped up strikes on ports and merchant ships around Odesa, a major Ukrainian port. Ukraine also resumed attacks on Russian vessels, reigniting fighting at sea.
On Sunday, Russian forces fired three cruise missiles at the Golden Leo, a Turkish grain carrier sailing under the flag of Guinea-Bissau as it departed near Odesa loaded with corn. Five people, including four Indian crew members, were killed and five others remain missing.
The intensified Russian attacks on Odesa, Ukraine's main grain export hub, have killed 28 civilians this month and reduced the monthly grain export capacity of Ukraine's Black Sea ports by roughly one-third, from 6 million metric tons to 4 million metric tons, according to Reuters.
Ukraine has responded by attacking Russian tankers and cargo vessels.
After Russia restricted shipping through the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait — routes used for roughly one-quarter of its grain exports — European wheat futures briefly surged 7 percent last week, while wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 5 percent.
Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, while Ukraine is also a major grain supplier.
As most Ukrainian agricultural exports pass through ports around Odesa, prolonged disruption to maritime shipping would have direct consequences not only for Ukraine's economy but also for global grain supplies and food prices.
A gas station in Seoul on July 20YONHAP
Experts warn of stagflation risks
The simultaneous disruptions in the Red Sea and the Black Sea could drive up both energy and food prices, economists say.
“Because higher oil prices raise production costs across virtually all industries, consumption could weaken while inflation continues to rise, creating stagflation,” Kang Sung-jin, an economics professor at Korea University, said.
“If the crisis in the 1970s was centered on oil prices, this time, oil, grain and logistics costs are all rising simultaneously, making it a much more complex shock.”
Oil shocks in the 1970s triggered a period of stagflation, with soaring energy prices fueling inflation while economic growth stalled.
Kang In-soo, an economics professor at Sookmyung Women's University, said Korea would be particularly vulnerable because it imports most of its crude oil and grain.
“The government should stabilize supply chains by expanding strategic reserves and diversifying import sources, while companies also need to reduce their dependence on specific countries and shipping routes,” Kang In-soo said.
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
