Shipping containers for export are stacked at Pyeongtaek Port in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, on Oct. 1.NEWS1
Korea's trade surplus with the United States is on track to surpass $100 billion for the first time this year, but what would normally be a cause for celebration is becoming a source of anxiety for Seoul as it braces for fresh trade pressure from the Donald Trump administration.
Seoul has cleared one major hurdle by selecting the first project under its strategic investment agreement with Washington. But the White House, which has repeatedly taken issue with trade deficits, could still present Korea with additional demands. Pressure to invest in Alaska's liquefied natural gas (LNG) development project is among the challenges that remain.
Korea's trade surplus with the United States reached $84.7 billion in the first nine months of this year, according to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources on Sunday.
In just three quarters, the surplus far exceeded both last year's full-year figure of $49.5 billion and the previous annual record of $55.6 billion set in 2024.
With the monthly surplus averaging about $9.4 billion this year, Korea appears likely to surpass the $100 billion mark for the first time.
Strong semiconductor exports, driven in part by booming demand for AI, have helped fuel the growing surplus.
But the sharp increase could bring fresh trade pressure from Washington.
In April last year, the Trump administration characterized the United States' massive trade deficits as a threat to its economy and national security and announced country-specific reciprocal tariffs.
The administration calculated tariff rates using factors including its trade deficit with each partner and the value of imports from that country. It initially announced tariffs of 25 percent on Korean goods and 24 percent on Japanese goods.
President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Truist Arena at Northern Kentucky University in Highland Heights, Kentucky, on Oct. 17.AP/YONHAP
Korea subsequently agreed to invest $350 billion in the United States in exchange for a reduction in its tariff rate to 15 percent.
On Oct. 1, Korea and the United States announced their first strategic investment project after more than 10 months of negotiations, marking the start of full-scale implementation of the agreement.
Yet potential sources of trade friction remain, with the Alaska LNG development project among the most prominent.
Seoul and Washington agreed to decide whether to proceed with the project after reviewing its commercial viability and other factors. Trump, however, has treated Korean investment in the project as a foregone conclusion.
The Korean government has insisted that it must assess the project's economic feasibility before deciding whether to invest, but rejecting Washington's demands could expose Seoul to additional trade pressure.
The possibility of further U.S. tariffs is another concern.
The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) launched a Section 301 investigation in March into manufacturing overcapacity across 16 economies, including Korea. Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 is a law designed to allow the United States to investigate and respond to foreign trade practices it considers unfair to U.S. commerce.
At the time, the USTR cited the country's goods trade deficit with Korea, which stood at $56 billion in 2024 and approximately $49 billion last year.
Washington also continues to pressure Korean chipmakers, including Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, to expand semiconductor manufacturing in the United States.
The logos of Samsung Electronics, left, and SK hynixYONHAP
Against this backdrop, Korea's soaring trade surplus with the United States is adding to the government's negotiating burden.
The contrast with Japan is particularly striking. Japan's trade surplus with the United States fell 23.4 percent in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year, while Korea's surplus surged.
"If I were in the United States' position and had to decide which country was primarily responsible for the trade deficit, I would demand $550 billion from Korea and $350 billion from Japan [at this point]," Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said on Sept. 22, flipping the U.S. investment commitments by the two countries.
Some experts, however, say Korea could use the fact that its growing trade surplus largely reflects stronger U.S. demand for semiconductors amid expanding AI investment as a negotiating point.
"The Trump administration does not look favorably on countries that run trade surpluses with the United States," Heo Yoon, a professor at Sogang University's Graduate School of International Studies, said. "The government needs to manage the situation by increasing imports of products that can diversify Korea's purchases from the United States, including U.S. energy, to prevent the trade surplus from rising too sharply.”
This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.
