Too late to reverse the trend
Published: 30 May. 2023, 19:55
CHO HYUN-SOOK
The author is a business news reporter of the JoongAng Ilbo.
Koreans are on a “birth strike.” The total fertility rate announced by Statistics Korea was 0.78 last year. It refers to the number of children a woman will have in her lifetime. If so, 20 men and women would have 7 to 8 children in the next generation. It is a record only set by Korea in the world.
The worst is yet to come. The total fertility rate bounced up to 0.81 between January and March this year, but it is also the lowest in the world for the same period. Culturally, Koreans prefer having children at the beginning of the year rather than at the end of the year. This year’s total fertility rate is likely to fall further than last year. It’s not simply a decline but a disaster for the population.
It is already too late to reverse the trend. When looking at the statistics, the women of childbearing age are between 15 and 49. Based on resident registration population statistics in April this year, the number of women of childbearing age is 11.27 million.
But according to Statistics Korea’s “future population estimate,” the 10 million mark will be reached within 10 years, falling to 8.5 million in 2040 and 5.35 million in 2060.
Even if the current birth rate is maintained, the number of newborns would be half as many, as the number of mothers would be half of the number there are today. If the birthrate falls further, the number of newborns will decrease more steeply.
On May 28, international credit rating agency Moody’s pointed to the population problem as the biggest risk to Korea’s economic growth.
The Ministry of Employment and Labor will start a pilot project for “foreign housekeepers” as early as the second half of this year. The caregiver and domestic help employment that had only been possible for Koreans, ethnic Koreans from China and foreigners married to Koreans will soon be open to foreign nationals.
It means that we will see caregivers from the Philippines and housekeepers from Vietnam in the near future. The ministry held a forum on May 25, and as expected, there were more concerns than anticipation. Adverse effects such as taking jobs away from Koreans, treatment and wage, and human rights infringements were discussed. There is no plan to prevent these problems.
It is also worrisome that the fertility rate and women’s participation in economic activities have not improved noticeably in Hong Kong and Singapore, which have long allowed foreign housekeepers. There is only a half-baked policy to help raise our low birthrate by avoiding directly tackling the immigration policy.
It is like a student who does not pay attention throughout a test and knowingly writes wrong answers when the bell rings. We need to ruminate over what American literary critic Henry Louis Mencken said: “For every complex problem, there’s a solution that is simple, neat and wrong.”
The author is a business news reporter of the JoongAng Ilbo.
Koreans are on a “birth strike.” The total fertility rate announced by Statistics Korea was 0.78 last year. It refers to the number of children a woman will have in her lifetime. If so, 20 men and women would have 7 to 8 children in the next generation. It is a record only set by Korea in the world.
The worst is yet to come. The total fertility rate bounced up to 0.81 between January and March this year, but it is also the lowest in the world for the same period. Culturally, Koreans prefer having children at the beginning of the year rather than at the end of the year. This year’s total fertility rate is likely to fall further than last year. It’s not simply a decline but a disaster for the population.
It is already too late to reverse the trend. When looking at the statistics, the women of childbearing age are between 15 and 49. Based on resident registration population statistics in April this year, the number of women of childbearing age is 11.27 million.
But according to Statistics Korea’s “future population estimate,” the 10 million mark will be reached within 10 years, falling to 8.5 million in 2040 and 5.35 million in 2060.
Even if the current birth rate is maintained, the number of newborns would be half as many, as the number of mothers would be half of the number there are today. If the birthrate falls further, the number of newborns will decrease more steeply.
On May 28, international credit rating agency Moody’s pointed to the population problem as the biggest risk to Korea’s economic growth.
The Ministry of Employment and Labor will start a pilot project for “foreign housekeepers” as early as the second half of this year. The caregiver and domestic help employment that had only been possible for Koreans, ethnic Koreans from China and foreigners married to Koreans will soon be open to foreign nationals.
It means that we will see caregivers from the Philippines and housekeepers from Vietnam in the near future. The ministry held a forum on May 25, and as expected, there were more concerns than anticipation. Adverse effects such as taking jobs away from Koreans, treatment and wage, and human rights infringements were discussed. There is no plan to prevent these problems.
It is also worrisome that the fertility rate and women’s participation in economic activities have not improved noticeably in Hong Kong and Singapore, which have long allowed foreign housekeepers. There is only a half-baked policy to help raise our low birthrate by avoiding directly tackling the immigration policy.
It is like a student who does not pay attention throughout a test and knowingly writes wrong answers when the bell rings. We need to ruminate over what American literary critic Henry Louis Mencken said: “For every complex problem, there’s a solution that is simple, neat and wrong.”
with the Korea JoongAng Daily
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